Supply and Macro News Favoring the Upside Drive Iron Ore Prices to Rebound Again [SMM Commentary]

Published: Feb 12, 2025 17:02

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Today, iron ore futures fluctuated upward, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 828.5 yuan/mt, up 0.91% for the day. Traders showed strong enthusiasm for selling. Steel mills adopted a more cautious sentiment, purchasing as needed. Transaction prices rose by 10-15 yuan/mt compared to yesterday. In the morning, a cyclone in Australia caused heavy rainfall, significantly impacting iron ore shipment ports, and Australia's shipments this week are expected to be halved. This triggered market concerns over future supply, driving up iron ore prices. In the afternoon, rumors related to the real estate sector led to a stock market surge, further boosting the prices of ferrous metals. However, SMM's pig iron data today showed a WoW decline in the daily average by 13,800 mt. Overall, iron ore demand is expected to weaken, coupled with the current overvaluation of iron ore, increasing short-term resistance to price growth, which may continue the fluctuating trend.

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures fluctuated upward, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 828.5 yuan/mt, up 0.91% for the day. Traders showed strong enthusiasm for selling. Steel mills adopted a more cautious sentiment, purchasing as needed. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 811-815 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, transaction prices for PB fines were around 830-835 yuan/mt, also up 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. In the morning, heavy rains caused by a cyclone in Australia significantly impacted iron ore shipping ports, with Australia's shipments expected to be halved this week. This raised concerns about future supply, driving up iron ore prices. In the afternoon, news related to the real estate sector spurred a stock market rally, further boosting ferrous metals. However, SMM's pig iron data today showed a WoW decline in daily average output by 13,800 mt. Overall demand for iron ore is expected to weaken, and with current high valuations, short-term upward momentum for ore prices faces greater resistance, likely continuing a fluctuating trend.

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